The world’s next energy transition is here, and China leads the way. The term “energy transition” refers to a significant structural change in how energy is produced and consumed in society. With the arrival of the Industrial Revolution the world moved from burning wood to burning coal, and as technology and engines improved, to gas and oil. Energy transitions are nothing new. What makes the next one distinct is its departure from fossil fuels, instead moving towards renewable energy sources like wind, solar, geothermal, or nuclear energy. Leading the global renewable energy market relies on the technological prowess of a country and how fast it can create cheap and efficient energy sources. In this scenario, access to natural resources and energy imports start to matter less.
Wind and solar supplied a record 26% of China’s electricity in April 2025, and China has twice as much wind and solar capacity under construction than the rest of the world combined. China is the top electric vehicle seller in the world, and is projected to remain at the top. In 2020, President Xi Jinping said that China will “aim to have CO2 emissions peak before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.” This energy shift is more than an environmental push. China has the power to move markets, and the expansion of renewables ultimately serves a deeper strategic purpose. At its core, the transition is driven by a desire to eliminate dependence on foreign fuels and consolidate geopolitical autonomy and influence.
The United States is falling behind, as renewable energy has increasingly become a politically polarized issue. Throughout President Trump’s second term, renewable energy has declined in general popularity and the issue has polarized Democrats and Republicans even further. Trump also has a history of rolling back renewable energy reforms. He recently ended tax incentives for wind and solar projects, and withdrew $13 billion in funding pledged to wind, solar, batteries, and EVs.
This political shift is in stark contrast to current US energy demand. With the explosion in AI technology development, the demand for AI data centers is growing faster than current energy infrastructure can support. Data centers consumed 183 terawatt-hours of electricity in 2024, which is 4% of the country’s total electricity consumption. This demand is expected to triple by 2030, and the main challenge for building data center infrastructure is power and grid capacity. Industry experts have likened every new AI data center project to adding a new city to the power grid. The U.S. needs more energy any way it can get it. And thanks to economies of scale, where increasing production output decreases the average cost per unit, renewable energy is cheaper today than it ever has been.
The AI data center boom is a microcosm of how the next energy transition—from fossil fuels to renewable energy—can help the U.S. profit from this exponential demand for energy. Global energy policy expert Jason Bordoff says that the next energy transition “is going to be one of the greatest economic opportunities since the Industrial Revolution.” Why? Renewable energy is a fast growing area of innovation and investment, and energy is the backbone of industry. “In 2022, investments in renewables reached a record high of $1.3 trillion, a 70% increase from the pre-pandemic levels of 2019.” This surge in investment reflects a recognition that future economic growth will depend on who can produce the most energy, the fastest, and at the lowest cost. As demand accelerates, the energy transition becomes not just an environmental shift, but an economically competitive one.
Increasing energy supply through fossil fuels or renewables is unequivocally advantageous for a country. And, more importantly, renewable energy has fewer geopolitical strings attached than fossil fuels. China is the world’s largest importer of crude oil. Some economists argue that if China continues to bolster its renewable energy capacity, it might be able to phase out oil imports. This would enable it to be more energy self-sufficient—and a self-sufficient country freer of geopolitical tensions, global market prices, and trade wars has much more power. Yet in the United States, Democratic and Republican party woes distract from the real issues at hand. While Democrats often frame renewable energy primarily as a climate issue and Republicans push to preserve fossil fuel dominance, long-term energy security falls through the cracks. This divide slows potential infrastructure development, and leaves the U.S. less prepared to meet surging energy demand. Political paralysis has its costs. Renewable energy is not just a “clean planet” argument— it is an argument about which country will be the next world power.
This battle for geopolitical dominance took center stage at COP30, the 30th UN Climate Change Conference, which was held in November 2025. The United States pulled out of the conference for the first time in thirty years. Historically, the U.S. has played a dominating role in the conference. But Washington’s job as leader fell to China this year, a country usually sidelined. This vacuum of power means that China gets to pull the strings on climate diplomacy, built on top of their already robust renewable energy industry.
China not only has a stronghold in renewable energy and climate diplomacy. It also has strong and invaluable ties to developing countries and emerging renewable energy markets in a way the U.S. does not, according to the New York Times. Many emerging, energy-hungry economies are rapidly adopting renewable energy, helped by a surge of inexpensive Chinese solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, and green-tech investment. They also report that China is investing billions of dollars building factories in countries like Vietnam and Brazil to produce solar panels and EVs. This shift marks a new center of gravity in global climate politics, with developing countries increasingly steering the transition.
It is clear that China’s accelerating dominance in renewable energy, combined with the U.S. political deadlock, demonstrates a potential shift in global power. As emerging economies embrace cheap Chinese green technology, China shapes the next era of energy and diplomacy while Washington steps back. The United States risks forfeiting not only economic gains but also geopolitical influence if it continues to sideline renewable energy as a partisan issue. As a student at UCLA, I see the energy transition taking shape in front of my own eyes: electric vehicles line campus parking lots, and many would argue that the Tesla is California’s most ubiquitous car. Yet the most affordable EV’s on the global market, many of them Chinese made, are nowhere to be found in the U.S. This contrast is hard to ignore: innovation is happening, demand is visible, but leadership is occurring elsewhere. Energy transitions have always redefined global leaders. Today’s transition is no different: the nation that controls the world’s clean energy future will command its economic and political landscape. Right now, that nation is not the United States.
Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons.
